The wonderful jargon hides some stark facts:-
The assumptions are breathtaking:-
Other key non-monetised costs by ‘main affected groups’
However in the long run around 2.8 million households would have notionally lower benefit receipt under Universal Credit than in the current system. Since these individuals are typically on lower than average incomes the impact on individual welfare may be proportionately higher.
andOverall this could lead to the equivalent of up to 300,000 additional people in work from improved financial incentives. These estimates take into account cases where people may be less likely to participate in the labour force, or may reduce their hours. The overall increase in employment would lead to direct economic value, as well as having a positive impact on health impacts and crime levels.
the assumption that those worse off will "just get a job" is silly to say the least:-There is an increase of £2.3bn due to changes in entitlement rules and increased take-up, which is offset by an estimated £2.2bn of savings due to reduced fraud, error and overpayments
The killer fact is that 2.8m households will be WORSE OFF UNDER UC!there will be some households whose benefit income is notionally lower than it would have been under the old system. However, in many cases these households will be able to increase their income because of the improved gains to work provided by Universal Credit.